Tips how to win money from gambling
I am the Sports Editor at an online gambling and sports news website. I have several years of experience of gambling, sports journalism and studying mathematics. Do I consider myself a gambling expert? Well, I guess you could say that.
There are many gambling experts who will dish out details of their gambling systems to ‘beat the bookie’ or generate a second money from gambling. But for the cost of course. I’m not going to do this. I’ll only give you information on bookmakers’ odds, bookmakers and gambling , which you can utilize (or forget) in the way you want.
One thing to remember is that the majority of those who participate with gambling will be net loser in Casino-strip.org the long run. This is why that bookmakers are that make a lot of money across the globe.
Even though bookmakers sometimes take huge losses, for instance if a favourite winner of the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they create markets with a margin so they will always make profits over the medium and long term, if not the short-term. This is in the event that they get their sums right.
In determining their odds for any particular event, bookmakers must first assess the likelihood of this event happening. For this purpose, they employ various statistical models based on data collated over years sometimes decades about the sports and team/competitor in the contest. If sport was completely predictable the sport would quickly end its appeal. while the bookies are often accurate in their estimates about the likelihood of an event, they’re sometimes way off the mark just because a game or contest goes against traditional wisdom and statistical odds.
Simply look at any sports and you’ll see occasions where the underdog prevails against all odds and even wins. Wimbledon beating then-mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, for instance, or the USA winning against the formidable USSR at ice hockey in 1980 Olympics are two examples of where you could have gotten good odds against the underdog. You could also have walked away with a substantial wedge.
The major bookmakers invest a lot of time and money to make sure they have the correct odds to have a good idea of the probabilities of the event and then add that little bit that gives them the profit margin. If an event is said to have the probability of, 1/3, the odds that show this probability would be 2/1. That’s two-to-one odds against the happening.
However, a bookie who set these odds would, over time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). Instead, they’d make the odds, for instance 6/4. So, they’ve created a margin that assures that, over time they will make money from betting on this selection. It is the same concept as a roulette in a casino.
So , how do you identify instances where bookmakers have made a mistake? It’s easier to say than do, but very much doable.
A way to do this is to become skilled at mathematical modelling and create a model that takes into all the variables that affect the outcomes of an event as possible. The issue with this approach is that no matter how complex the model may be, and no matter how broad it is but it will never be able to take into account the intricacies of variables relating to the individual’s mental state. Whether a golfer manages to hit a major-winning five-foot putt on the 18th green at St Andrews it is as much down to their concentration as much as the weather or the day of the week. Also, the maths can get quite complex.
Or, you could find the perfect sport niche. Bookmakers tend to focus their attention on the events that make their most money, typically football (soccer), American football and horse racing. Therefore, battling bookmakers when you bet on an Manchester United v Chelsea match is not easy. Unless you work for some of the teams or are engaged to one of the players or managers, it is very likely the bookmaker setting the odds will have more information than you.
However, if placing bets on football that is not league or badminton, crown green bowls, it’s feasible, through hard work reading tons of statistics and general data gathering that you will begin to get an edge over bookies (if they even offer odds for these things, which many do).
What should you do if you have an the edge in terms of information? You take note of the value.
Value betting refers to the practice of placing bets that take a gamble with odds that are higher than the actual probability of an event happening. For instance, if you evaluate the likelihood of a certain non-league football team (Grimsby Town, say) taking their place in the next football game as 33% or 1/3 and then you discover a bookmaker that has established the odds of 3/1, you have a value bet you can place. The reason is that chances of 3/1 (excluding the margin built-in by the bookie) suggest a probability of 25% or 1/4. The bookie, in your informed opinion, is underestimating Grimsby’s chance, which means you’ve built an 8% margin for yourself.
Of course Grimsby (as is often the most of the time) could blunder their lines and not win the game, which means you may lose your bet. But if you continue to look for and place bets on bets that are worth your money, over time you’ll be able to make an income. If you don’t then, over time, you will lose. Simple.